How we work out the number
There are three steps, and you can check each one yourself.
- Output. We asked the EU's PVGIS tool how much an 800 W panel makes in each of 12 UK cities, for each tilt and direction, then scaled it for the panel size and shade you pick.
- Saving. Output, times the share you use at home, times the price you pay per unit.
- Payback. The kit price divided by the yearly saving.
saving = kWh per year × share used at home × price per kWh
payback = kit price ÷ saving
10-year net = saving × 10 - kit priceWhat we assumed
| Item | Value | Where it comes from |
|---|---|---|
| Sun data | PVGIS-SARAH3 | PVGIS v5.3, fetched 2026-09-21 |
| System losses | 14% | The PVGIS default for cables, inverter and dirt |
| Electricity price | 26.32p per kWh | Ofgem cap, 1 Oct to 31 Dec 2026, Direct Debit, average for England, Scotland and Wales |
| Used at home | 80% | Our assumption. You can change it. |
| Shade | 0%, 10%, 25% | Our assumption. Rough steps, not measurements. |
| Kit price | £400 | A placeholder, not a shop price |
| Export payment | £0 | We have found no UK scheme that pays for it |
We also leave out panel ageing and any change in energy prices. Electricity prices move every three months, and the government has taken VAT off electricity only until 31 Mar 2027, so the number on your bill may look different next year.
Why your real saving may be lower
The saving only counts power that your home uses at the moment it is made. An 800 W kit peaks around midday in summer. If the house is empty then, you are relying on the fridge, the router and standby loads to soak it up, and whatever is left flows out unpaid.
Direction matters more than most people expect. A vertical panel facing north makes about a quarter of what the same panel makes facing south. Try it in the calculator.
The government's own line is that households could save "up to £110" a year. Treat it as a ceiling. Our best case for London comes out a little higher because it assumes no shade and 80% use, and we do not know what GOV.UK assumed.
What to do with the answer
If the payback is under five years, the kit is probably worth a serious look. Between five and ten, it depends on how long you will stay in the home. Over ten, you are better off spending the money elsewhere. Then check the rules, and make sure the model you want is on the approved register before you pay. The cost page explains where the £400 price came from.